Uruguay Inflation Climbs to 4.68% in September

Uruguay's inflation rate climbed to 4.68% in September, according to the national statistics office INE. Prices increased by 0.54% in a single month, largely due to rising costs in meat, fruit, and vegetables. This marks the second consecutive month of inflation above the 4.5% target range. Food and non-alcoholic drinks alone contributed 0.45 percentage points to the 0.54-point monthly increase.

Vegetables saw the largest single-month jump at 5.27%, with tomatoes rising 48.86% and onions 25.45%. Meat prices also increased by 2.43%. Meanwhile, transport costs fell by 0.54%. Analysts had anticipated only a 0.35% increase, while private research center Cinve forecasted 0.33%. Inflation excluding food, vegetables, and fuel rose to 4.47% over the past year, while a measure excluding regulated prices stood at 4.51%.

Non-tradable goods and services, mainly local services, saw a 5.80% rise. Tradable goods, which compete with imports, grew by 3.31%. Annual inflation fell to 2.94% in March, below the 3% floor of the target range. The central bank sets policy through its Monetary Policy Committee, which meets on October 8 at 10:00 local time. The policy rate has remained at 5.75% since a March cut.

The BCU expects a 25 basis-point increase but has not announced a decision. Business owners expect inflation to reach 5.1%, while analysts forecast 4.71% by December. For residents and retirees, the weekly shop will be the main concern, especially fresh produce and meat. Prices for local services, excluding tradable goods, have risen 5.80% year-over-year.