Trump may be in political trouble. But Trump-style global populism isn’t

President Donald Trump's political situation may be deteriorating, yet his style of conservative populist nationalism is gaining traction worldwide. The election victory of Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's first round of presidential voting has reinforced this global movement. Across Europe, right-wing populists are on the rise, driven by similar issues such as economic hardships and unfulfilled promises of change that are also troubling US Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining significant ground, as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government seems to be hitting a wall. In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen is currently leading in the polls ahead of the upcoming presidential election. While these parties are not exact replicas of Trump's MAGA movement, they were inspired by his rise and continued presence in global affairs.

The US administration actively supports these nationalist allies who challenge the centrist leaders it encounters at international gatherings. The AfD party's supporters gather at an election campaign rally in Neubrandenburg, Germany. Many right-wing populist parties endorse a similar ethos to Trump's 2016 and 2024 campaigns, advocating for protectionist economics, hostility towards elites, globalization, and mass immigration.

It might be ironic if these parties reach their peak just as Trump's influence wanes. However, as a lame duck president, Trump may attempt to leave a lasting imprint on the world, similar to other second-term leaders who have tried to do the same before stepping down. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham are both battling to counter this populist trend by adopting moderate, centrist rhetoric and policies to counter the right-wing challenge.

Yet, Trump's erratic political behavior may be sparking a separate reactionary force, particularly within the United States, as the success of democratic socialists in some midterm primary elections points to a new surge of left-wing populism.