Trucking Capacity Crisis: Rejections Up 4x on Same Volume

The freight industry is grappling with an unprecedented capacity crisis, with carrier rejection rates surging to approximately 14%, nearly four times the rate observed in 2023, despite only a 9% increase in truckload volumes over the past three years, according to a Sonar market update. This surge in rejections, driven by escalating costs, driver shortages, regulatory challenges, and a lack of new entrants, indicates a structural supply issue rather than a demand-driven situation.

Carrier authorities have risen to a five-year high above 2,000 per week in late August and September, but this does not signify genuine capacity growth, as tractor counts have plummeted by approximately 51,000 in August alone. Additionally, over 202,000 CDL holders are sidelined due to drug and alcohol violations, and 2,700 drivers are removed each month for English proficiency issues.

Insurance premiums have also increased by about 4% in 2025 and another 4% to 6% in early 2026, further impeding new carrier entry. Experts advise shippers and brokers to monitor tractor counts, fleet miles reported, and the discrepancy between tender rejections and tender volumes instead of focusing on net authority headlines.