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Ukraine's recent battlefield victories may be prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider his strategy and focus on early winter strikes, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). In a development reported on October 4, Ukraine claimed that Russia utilized more than 800 jet-powered drones during the week of September 27 to October 4, a number that currently surpasses Ukraine's ability to intercept—downing only 50-60% of the incoming drones.
ISW reported that Russia's winter 2026-27 campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure began in late September, with the aim of making civilian life unbearable enough to force Ukraine to surrender. Russian forces are reportedly set to intensify attacks on military facilities, defense industry sites, and related infrastructure, particularly in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions. The Russian Defense Ministry cited retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, though ISW dismissed these claims as unfounded.
The Russian strikes, including the deployment of 135 Shahed-type and Gerbera-type drones, along with decoy drones and Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions, have targeted Kyiv's Northern and Southern bridges seven times. Ukrainian forces have downed 123 drones and two loitering munitions, with five locations hit in the attacks. Ukraine is bolstering its defenses against jet drones, installing more 12.50-caliber machine-gun turrets and F-16 interceptors, and is set to receive 2,000 Bars interceptor drones through a joint production deal with Germany.
Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has vowed to increase attacks on Russian oil refineries, following Russia's strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions. ISW stated that these strikes are not a genuine response to specific events, adding that evidence from Russia is lacking. In addition, Russia is stockpiling ballistic missiles, with President Zelenskyy estimating Russia may have up to 700 ballistic missiles in reserve, producing 130-140 each month.
As drone superiority wanes, Russia is likely preparing for more intense strikes in the coming months, ISW concluded.
Written by urgent.news from Euromaidan Press's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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