Standard Chartered Says Hormuz Oil Flows Are Far From Normal
Oil flows through the Middle East have staged an impressive rebound, with export volumes recovering to near pre-war levels even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal. Standard Chartered estimates crude and condensate exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran and including bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea, reached roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in…
Standard Chartered reports that oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to near pre-war levels despite traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining low. The company estimates crude and condensate exports from the Gulf reached about 16.5 million barrels per day in September, close to pre-war volumes. However, only 60% of those barrels passed through the Hormuz strait, compared to 83% pre-war.
This indicates exporters have found ways to move oil but at higher costs and less efficiency. The system now relies on complex workarounds, such as vessel-intensive ship-to-ship transfers and using the Omani coast route. While this adaptation has helped avert worst-case supply shortages, it has also increased voyage times and security costs.
Saudi Arabia's adaptation, shifting exports to the east coast following pipeline damage, highlights the success and limits of these workarounds. Iran's exports have nearly dried up due to a U.S. naval blockade, weakening its chokehold on the Hormuz strait but raising the risk of military escalation.
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