Spanish election threatens to blow up Brussels’ political balance

BRUSSELS — Should Pedro Sánchez lose Spain’s recent snap election, the European Union could face increased political instability, as the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group would lose their influential position within the group. Sánchez, the only Socialist-aligned leader leading a large EU nation, has traditionally provided a counterweight to decisions in the EU Council, which is largely controlled by the center-right.

Spain's lawmakers, comprising the S&D's largest national delegation, usually carry out his stance with relative ease. However, a new administration led by the center-right People's Party and their potential partnership with the far-right Vox party might disrupt this arrangement, as senior S&D lawmakers warned. The absence of Sánchez could also unsettle the informal alliance within the S&D, liberals, and the center-right European People's Party, which President Ursula von der Leyen relies on to pass legislation.

With fewer incentives for compromise and S&D lawmakers in opposition at home, von der Leyen might face greater pressure to make more concessions to lawmakers already discontented by the center-right's votes with the far right.