Skydance stock analysis: debut dip, WBD deal risks, and leverage outlook

Paramount Skydance (SKYD) debuted on the NYSE with a 3.58% drop, trading at $9.43 in after-hours trading on October 6, 2026. Over the past year, the stock has fallen 48.0%, and over the past week, it has dropped 2.2%. Much of this decline stems from the switch from Nasdaq to the NYSE. The drop indicates that investors are still evaluating the risks and rewards of the Warner Bros.

Discovery (WBD) deal. SKYD's revenue has stagnated at around $28.9 billion in FY2025, down from $30.15 billion in 2022. EBITDA has declined from $4.39 billion in 2021 to $2.68 billion in 2025. Net income turned negative in 2025 at -$621 million, after a -$6.22 billion loss in 2024. Total debt decreased from $19.63 billion to $15.09 billion over the same period (all figures as of fiscal year-ends).

As of June 30, 2026, the market cap stood at $10.99 billion, with an enterprise value of $26.12 billion, resulting in an EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.9x and debt/equity of 137.6%. The significant leverage is a major concern, as adding $44.4 billion in notes to existing debt would further increase leverage once the WBD deal is completed.

The fair value model shows no meaningful anchor for the stock price. Analysts have only modestly raised their target upside to 3.2% as of June 30. The debut dip provides little insight into the stock's value, reflecting investor caution around leverage and deal timing, rather than outright rejection of the strategy.