Russia testing Europe's defenses below threshold of open war, experts say
What may look like a string of hybrid incidents increasingly resembles a sub-threshold war against Europe, says Olena Davlikanova, a security policy expert.
Russia is conducting tests to gauge Europe's limits before escalating into open war, according to experts. The incursions involve drones breaching NATO airspace, sabotage, and cyberattacks spanning the continent. While Europe has bolstered defenses since 2022, critical vulnerabilities persist, particularly in air defense, communications, intelligence, and joint command.
Recent strikes on Ukrainian cities and Russian drones entering NATO airspace underscore the growing intensity of hybrid operations across Europe. A German official accused Russia of plotting a drone attack at Leipzig Airport in August. The implications are profound, prompting questions about the extent of Moscow's pressure before resorting to direct military conflict.
Security experts cite a sustained campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks, military provocations, and airspace violations, which have intensified since 2024. Military analyst Leopold Schmertzing observes that Russia is waging a war against European values and institutions, emphasizing the need for fundamental changes in either Russia or Europe to avert further escalation.
Europe's military readiness has improved since 2022, but gaps remain in air defense, drones, communications, intelligence, and joint command. Russian President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the outsized impact of unmanned systems in the ongoing conflict. Ukraine's experience demonstrates the critical role of drones in modern warfare, which currently receives only a fraction of European defense budgets.
The EU and Ukraine are working to enhance drone cooperation, recognizing it as a key area for strengthening defenses. Ultimately, the challenge lies in bridging military capability gaps and preparing for Russian aggression already manifesting across the continent.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Independent's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
