Republicans continue to slide in US polls, four weeks before midterm elections
Americans are deeply unhappy with the Iran war and inflation, and the president and fellow Republicans are paying the price.
Four weeks prior to the November 3 US midterm elections, Republicans are trailing Democrats by 9.6 points on the generic ballot, according to analyst Nate Silver’s forecast model. Democrats have historically led by 9.1 points in my September 25 article, and they are favored to gain control of the Senate and are overwhelming favorites in the House of Representatives.
Donald Trump’s net approval has improved from a low of -23.5 to -22.5 in the past week. If Iran war-related disruption persists until the midterms, along with higher petrol prices and inflation, Republicans may lose control of both the House and the Senate, potentially suffering significant losses. However, if disruption eases and petrol prices decrease before the midterms, Republicans could perform better than their current polling suggests and possibly retain Senate control.
Trump’s net approval in Silver’s national poll aggregation is -22.5, with 59.9% disapproving and 37.5% approving. Trump’s approval is below any other president since Harry Truman at this point in their term. Four specific issues tracked by Silver show Trump’s net approval at -12.7 on immigration, -28.1 on trade, -32.8 on the economy, and -48.5 on inflation.
In the last week, Trump’s net approval on inflation has decreased by two points. Silver also tracks US support for the Iran war, where 60.0% are opposed and 32.1% support, resulting in a net support of -27.9, the worst since the war started. Midterm elections will be held on November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats up for election.
Democrats need at least a 4-seat gain in the Senate and a 4-point margin in the generic ballot to have a good chance of winning the Senate. Republicans have a significant advantage in the Senate due to the equal representation of each state. Democrats have a 51.3–41.6 lead in the generic ballot, a 9.6-point margin (9.1 points in my September 25 article).
Silver predicts a 74% chance of Democrats winning the Senate and a 93% chance of winning the House. Democrats are favored to win in six to seven-point margins in Senate contests for five states that Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024: Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas. Democrats have the best chance to gain control of the Senate, as a markedly improved economy for most Americans and avoiding systematic Republican overperformance in the polls would be key factors.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
