Queda dos Treasuries: a antessala de uma crise de crédito?
A curva de juros continua empinando nos EUA – e começa a causar estrago em alguns setores da economia real. O yield dos Treasuries de 10 anos atingiu o seu maior nível em mais de duas décadas. Superou 5,3% – algo não visto desde 2002. O de 30 anos passou de 5,6% – também o […] The post Queda dos Treasuries: a antessala de uma crise de crédito? appeared first on Brazil Journal .
The yield on US 10-year Treasuries hit a 24-year high of 5.3%, surpassing other long-term bond yields. High yield bonds have experienced a significant decline as a result. Corporate credit costs for companies with the lowest credit ratings have risen to 17%, the highest level in six years. Despite Treasuries, even investment-grade companies have felt the impact. Bank of America has reduced its estimate for investment-grade bond issuance to $110 billion this October from $160 billion.
Demand for 2-year bonds has almost doubled that of 30-year bonds, indicating investor concerns over rising interest rates on longer-term securities. Moody’s estimates that $1.45 trillion in U.S. investment-grade corporate debt will mature between 2026 and 2030. There is a high chance that borrowing costs will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve likely to raise rates at least three more times before early 2028.
If companies' profits do not keep pace with this interest rate increase, credit risks could become more pronounced, according to Moody's Director of Credit, Atsi Sheth.
The higher interest rates have also driven up the cost of real estate financing, prompting buyers to renegotiate contracts closed at the beginning of the year, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The 6-12 month period between a buyer signing a contract and the sale being completed can significantly affect financing costs, especially with rapidly rising interest rates.
U.S. markets face potential challenges in commercial real estate recovery, including shopping centers and office spaces, which have been struggling post-pandemic and are now recovering slowly. Over $5 trillion in commercial mortgages are highly sensitive to Treasury rate fluctuations. The FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index, which tracks listed REITs, fell 5% over the past 30 days.
High-interest rates are already dragging down small-cap stocks; the Russell 2000 index has dropped 7% since its August 14th peak. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has remained relatively stable, with a 16% year-to-date gain, nearing its all-time high.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
