Pakistan, Turkey say ‘military forces’ will help Saudi Arabia. Why this may not mean troops in active combat

On October 5, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to provide military assistance to Saudi Arabia amid the ongoing conflict with Houthi rebels in Yemen. This move is in line with their collective defense pact, the Mecca Alliance for Defence, also known as Makkah. Despite claims from Yemen's recognized government that they have pushed back the Houthis from several key areas, including the Red Sea port of Mocha, both sides have disputed each other's statements.

The Mecca Alliance parties met on Monday and released a statement affirming that the security of each country is integral to the collective security of all three nations. However, it doesn't mean that Turkish and Pakistani soldiers will be actively fighting alongside Saudi Arabia's forces. The statement emphasized that the practical implementation of the collective defense commitments is still in progress, and the action would be subject to each country's internal laws.

Turkey's parliament hasn't ratified the pact, which means Turkey's involvement is likely to be more about intelligence sharing and training rather than active deployment. Similarly, Pakistan has signaled that its support will be more supportive than direct combat. Their defence minister, Khawaja Asif, clarified that both Turkey and Pakistan are in the "theatre" but Saudi Arabia is the one conducting the combat operations.

The main reason why Turkey and Pakistan might not actively fight the Houthis is the risk of antagonizing Iran. The Houthis are largely trained and armed by Iran, and an invasion could provoke Iran and its allied militias to openly support the Houthis, potentially escalating the conflict. Both Turkey and Pakistan have a vested interest in avoiding a wider regional war, especially considering their economic ties and regional stability concerns.