Oil gains as traders weigh Gulf tensions against strong Mideast exports

Oil prices exhibited a slight uptick on Tuesday, as geopolitical risks stemming from Middle Eastern tensions maintained a premium in the market, despite robust regional crude exports and a G7 emergency stockpile release addressing supply anxieties. Brent crude futures climbed by 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $100.59 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.73 per barrel.

Shipping data revealed that regional crude exports surpassed pre-war levels on multiple occasions in late September. The Yemen-based Houthi group claimed to have targeted Saudi airports and Aramco's refinery, although Saudi Arabia has yet to confirm these assertions. Alternative routes and logistical adaptations have enabled producers to maintain the flow of barrels, even amid disruptions around Hormuz.

However, experts caution that declaring a full normalization of supply remains premature, as renewed attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz and escalating incidents have heightened costs, insurance, routing, and security risks associated with transporting crude. Gulf oil exports, excluding Iran, surged to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, propelled by a recovery in Saudi exports despite infrastructure attacks and Iranian assaults on regional shipping.

Conversely, Iranian exports dwindled to zero due to a US blockade. Supply concerns were further alleviated as the G7 nations agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and committed to avoiding energy export restrictions, driven by pressure from US President Donald Trump. However, ongoing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces in Yemen continue to sow doubts about potential disruptions to supply from the region's biggest oil exporter.

The stalemate in US-Iran negotiations has exacerbated these concerns. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a swift advance on Monday to reclaim coastal areas, including the city of Mocha, up to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In response, the Houthi group asserted it had launched attacks against key Saudi targets, including an Aramco refinery in Rabigh, though these claims could not be independently verified.

The conflict has further tightened shipping rates in Gulf-to-Asia routes, underscoring the vulnerability of the oil supply chain to disruptions.