Los grandes inversores vigilan los cambios regulatorios

Great investors are keeping a close eye on regulatory changes in response to the upcoming November 29th elections. Currently, the stock market remains calm, anticipating that a different government would not bring significant changes to the Spanish market, though it remains possible that the valuation of energy companies, banks, and Socimis could be affected.

Investment firms suggest revising valuations for these sectors if a new government with a PP-Vox coalition is elected, which is currently the favored option among investors. Analysts have incorporated new metrics into their analysis for these sectors in case of a change in government. The majority of market focus is on the energy sector, particularly renewable energy companies such as Solaria and Acciona Energía, which may face uncertainty if their measures related to data centers are reviewed.

Conversely, Endesa could extend the life of its nuclear plants. The removal of the tax on the banking sector may be on the table, with CaixaBank identified as the most favored entity, followed by Banco Sabadell, Bankinter, and Unicaja. The Spanish fiscal impact on Banco Santander and BBVA is expected to be diluted due to their high international exposure.

Bank performance will continue to be crucial for the Ibex 35's evolution due to its significant weight in the index. Socimis, including Merlin Properties and Colonial, may see a reduction in their tax burden, but closer monitoring of Merlin Properties' expansion into data center business is necessary. Professional investors believe that changes in market-leading companies are possible but not a shift in the outlook for the Spanish market's performance.

They emphasize the need for stable growth, predictable policy, and annual budgets to attract both domestic and international investors. Strategists agree that political factors usually have little impact on the Spanish equity market, primarily due to the foreign business exposure of major listed companies. Only eleven firms on the Ibex 35 generated more than 80% of their revenue abroad in the first half of this year: ArcelorMittal, Ferrovial, Inditex, Puig, Logista, Acciona, BBVA, Banco Santander, IAG, Cellnex, and Fluidra.

Together, these companies achieved a record revenue of nearly 300 billion in the first six months, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year. Analysts also keep an eye on companies like Indra, Telefónica, and Aena due to their European shareholder status and influence on board compositions. Despite the Ibex 35's 103.9% rise since Pedro Sánchez's government took office, experts acknowledge that market tranquility does not imply the absence of risks.

Volatility in markets could resurface before or after the elections, and the debt market, like the equity market, is highly sensitive to political uncertainties in other regions, such as France, Germany, and the UK. Analysts believe that adding more uncertain events, like an election with an unclear outcome, to an already pressured and saturated Europe could lead to more debt sales.

However, Spain has not yet experienced this, but its financing costs have also risen, following the example set by France and Italy. The 10-year Spanish bond yield is above 4%, a level not seen in over a decade. Analysts consider Spanish debt vulnerable to investor withdrawal, not due to political reasons, but due to the general context.