How did Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro pull off a first-round lead?

Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, defied expectations to secure a first-round victory in the country's recent election. The 45-year-old right-wing senator received 47% of the vote, narrowly edging out the incumbent leftist candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who garnered 45%. Despite being a lesser-known figure prior to this campaign, Flavio Bolsonaro's support stems from his father's political ideology, as he effectively embraced his father's shadow during the campaign.

The Bolsonaro family's political project gained momentum after Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of coup-plotting and barred from running for office until 2030. This left Jair's eldest son as the most prominent figure in the family's political aspirations. Flavio Bolsonaro's success can be attributed to Brazil's widespread desire for change, as around 50% of Brazilians disapprove of the current Lula administration due to factors such as rising prices and insecurity.

The election result has been hailed as a win for the right-wing forces across Latin America, buoyed by the support of US President Donald Trump. The "orange wave," in reference to Trump's skin tone, has seen various regional allies of Trump take office in recent years, with Brazil following suit. The election result has been attributed to Flavio Bolsonaro's ability to shift attention away from his own alleged corruption issues to focus on the Supreme Court and the government.