FMDA: Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus Will Hit $8.69bn in Q3

The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) anticipates Nigeria's current account surplus will reach $8.69 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up from $7.54 billion recorded in the previous quarter. This projection is attributed to reduced import demand and stable high crude oil prices. The association's September 2026 Monthly Market Report highlighted that the Q2 current account surplus exceeded its original forecast of $6.12 billion, growing to $7.54 billion.

The report forecast that this surplus would further increase to $8.69 billion by the time Q3 2026 data is released, driven by lower import demand and persistently high crude oil prices. The positive trend in Nigeria's trade position is evident, with the trade balance rising from $1.18 billion in Q4 2025 to $5.45 billion in Q1 2026, and $9.22 billion in Q2.

The current account balance mirrored this growth, increasing from $1.40 billion in Q4 2025 to $4.98 billion in Q1 2026, and reaching $7.54 billion in Q2. This improvement is supported by robust oil prices, with Brent crude averaging 14.43% increase to $99.95 per barrel in September due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The stronger external position is also reflected in the rising gross foreign reserves, which reached $54.92 billion in September from $53.81 billion in August. The naira, meanwhile, appreciated by 1.93% in September, attributed to improved foreign exchange fundamentals, including increased oil receipts and sustained market confidence.

However, the association noted that the Dangote IPO's impact on foreign exchange liquidity remains limited at the moment, as significant foreign currency conversion is expected only after allotment.