C Raja Mohan: In Iran war, US midterm elections are the new front

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards of Iran have targeted American voters in their war against Donald Trump, urging citizens to reject Trump's policies and embrace peaceful coexistence with their nation. This appeal comes amid escalating military and economic pressure on Iran, just weeks before the US midterm elections. The letter from the Guards, addressed to the "honourable people" of the United States, brings the conflict directly into America's domestic political arena.

Both Iran and the United States are grappling with internal struggles between advocates of negotiation and hardliners favoring confrontation, which further shapes the war's conduct. This situation echoes the "October surprise" phenomenon in American politics, where major events or political moves alter the national mood before the November elections.

Iran's approach to exploiting American electoral moments is not new; during the 1980 presidential election, the Iranian Revolution overthrew the Shah, a close American ally, and President Jimmy Carter's re-election campaign was marred by the hostage crisis at the US embassy in Tehran. Today, Tehran hopes to capitalize on another American electoral moment, while Trump insists that the midterms do not determine his Iran policy.

However, the electoral calendar is visibly intertwined with the military debate. Iran's letter claims to have no quarrel with ordinary Americans but aims to weaken Republicans and create space for a more accommodating policy in Washington. The military preparations provide Trump with more options if diplomacy fails, giving Tehran reason to take his threats seriously.

Both sides see the adversary's home front as a battlefield, and the October surprise could bring about another military blow, a diplomatic opening, or another fuel-price shock, highlighting the interconnectedness of domestic and military conflicts.