Analysis:With Uzbekistan open for business, investors watch reform staying power

Tashkent, Oct 6 - In 2018, Nika Kurdiani, CEO of TBC Bank, began planning the expansion of the London-listed Georgian lender into Uzbekistan. At the time, the Central Asian nation, home to nearly 40 million people, had strict capital controls, an overvalued currency, and limited acceptance of credit cards, forcing people to carry large amounts of cash for everyday transactions.

However, after nearly a decade of economic reform under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, digital payments are now widespread, and TBC Uzbekistan, one of the few foreign lenders operating in a largely state-owned banking sector, is considering an initial public offering (IPO) separate from its Georgian parent. The reforms have attracted international investors, with the National Investment Fund raising $690 million in May via a London Stock Exchange IPO, drawing over $2.8 billion in orders.

While many see the reforms as meaningful and more open to market practices, investors are uncertain if business-friendly changes can become firmly embedded in a country where market-oriented policies are relatively new and their staying power remains unclear. The biggest risk is the sustainability and consistency of reform implementation, according to Kurdiani.