Afternoon front page: Parti Québécois’ referendum hopes; Eby pledges higher taxes in B.C.; and more

Quebec's October 5, 2026 provincial election resulted in a victory for the Parti Québécois (PQ), which secured 59 out of the 127 seats in the National Assembly—five short of a majority. The Quebec Liberal Party came in second with 40 seats, followed by the Quebec Conservative Party with 19 seats and Québec solidaire with nine seats.

The Coalition Avenir Québec, which had governed the province for eight years, did not win any seats. While the PQ achieved a plurality, it fell short of a clear mandate to push for a referendum on Quebec independence. The election outcome signals a significant political shift for the PQ, but it does not confirm a majority of Quebecers support independence.

Quebec, Canada's second-most populous province and a key player in industrial sectors like aerospace, aluminium, and hydroelectricity, must navigate constitutional constraints and minority government dynamics. A minority government must secure support from opposition parties for budget approvals and major legislation. The Clarity Act, passed in 2000, requires the House of Commons to determine if a referendum question is clear and whether a majority exists before the federal government engages in negotiations over secession.

The Supreme Court of Canada ruled in 1998 that Quebec has no unilateral right to secede under Canadian law. Any potential referendum would need to pass this legal scrutiny. The PQ plans to seek a referendum before January 2029, but the timeframe remains uncertain. A referendum could pose medium-term risks to Canada's economy due to uncertainty and potential delays in business projects.

Moreover, the referendum question's wording and the timing of the vote would significantly impact economic outcomes. While Quebec's separation would not immediately sever trade ties with the United States, the medium-term risk lies in the ambiguity surrounding treaty rights and market access.