When Is the Best Time to See Peak Fall Foliage?
Climate change is making it harder to predict the best timing for leaf peeping.
Autumn arrives, bringing the annual spectacle of falling leaves across the United States. Millions of visitors flock to witness the vibrant colors, generating billions of dollars in tourism revenue for the regions involved. According to a 2025 estimate from the U.S. National Park Service, fall tourists inject over $8 billion into the New England economy each year.
Determining the optimal time and location to observe the peak of fall foliage can be challenging. Experts caution that predicting the exact moment of maximum color change is a complex task, further complicated by the impacts of climate change. William Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry at the University of Vermont, explains that numerous factors contribute to the variability of foliage colors, with climate change adding an additional layer of unpredictability.
New England and upstate New York are forecasted to offer the most impressive displays in 2026, according to AccuWeather's August predictions. Favorable conditions, including wet spring weather and drier autumnal conditions, are expected to create optimal viewing opportunities. However, the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast may experience less vibrant foliage due to cloud cover, rainfall, and a lack of clear, cool nights.
Climate change is expected to have varying effects on fall foliage across the country. Warmer temperatures, particularly cooler nighttime temperatures, may delay the onset of fall colors. Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, can also impact the intensity of the colors, while sudden cold snaps can trigger premature leaf drop.
Chris Martine, a professor of biology at Bucknell University, notes that some research suggests that climate change could lead to a longer fall foliage season in certain cases, as different tree species bloom at different times.
Despite these variations, accurately predicting peak foliage season remains a difficult task. Both Keeton and Martine emphasize that climate change has made it increasingly challenging to forecast when the best weekend for viewing fall foliage might occur. Visitors should be prepared to choose a weekend and hope for the best, as weather conditions can significantly impact the overall experience.
Written by urgent.news from Time's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
