What Prediction Markets Say About Brazil’s Runoff
Prediction markets make Flávio Bolsonaro the clear favourite to beat Lula on 25 October. What Polymarket and Kalshi say, and why the odds matter. The post What Prediction Markets Say About Brazil’s Runoff appeared first on The Rio Times .
Prediction markets indicate Flávio Bolsonaro is the frontrunner to win Brazil's presidential runoff on October 25th, 2026. Flávio's chance of victory has risen from around 63% before his win in the first round to 85% and 82% on Polymarket and Kalshi respectively. Before the first round, major polls projected Lula as the frontrunner with 42% to 40% for Flávio.
However, Flávio finished the first round with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%. Lula, who expected to win, has since lost the runoff. Prediction markets have become a valuable tool for investors, campaigns, and anyone interested in Brazil's political landscape.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
