Washington has picked a side in Ethiopia's new war
‘Commercial diplomacy’ won't protect Red Sea security or counterterrorism goals if the Horn of Africa collapses into a regional conflict.
Recent unrest has erupted in Ethiopia following the formation of a coalition of seven opposition groups aiming to topple the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The conflict has spread across various regions, with militias from Amhara and Oromia regions backing the rebels. Battles have occurred along vital trade routes heading to the port of Djibouti, while drone attacks have targeted the capital's military airport.
Despite Tigrayans being less powerful than in their previous war, they can still wield asymmetric pressure on the government.
As the fighting intensifies, the risk of civilian displacement and casualties increases. The humanitarian situation is already precarious, with food insecurity expected to worsen due to the upcoming El Nino. Neighboring countries, including Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia, are reportedly supporting the Ethiopian government's opponents.
Abiy's recent infrastructure projects, such as the construction of three new hydroelectric dams on the Nile and his claims on the Eritrean port of Assab, have strained relations within the region.
The involvement of multiple regional players heightens the likelihood of Ethiopia becoming entangled in a larger regional conflict, reminiscent of the instability seen in neighboring Sudan and the longstanding enmity between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The potential for a wider conflict to impact US priorities, such as counterterrorism and Red Sea security, is a growing concern.
The US State Department has called for restraint from both Ethiopia and Eritrea, yet they have not addressed the internal fighting by Ethiopia's armed groups. The administration's focus on commercial diplomacy, exemplified by the recent $5 billion sale of Boeing aircraft to Ethiopia's national airline, suggests a prioritization of economic returns over peacemaking.
However, this shortsighted approach fails to account for the potential devastation that a nationwide war could inflict on Ethiopia's economic growth and infrastructure plans.
While the African Union has called for a cessation of hostilities, the United States holds the key to resolving this regional crisis due to its political influence. As the US prioritizes Red Sea instability, it must remain vigilant and proactive in mediating a peaceful resolution to prevent Ethiopia's economic potential from being jeopardized by a regional conflict.
Written by urgent.news from Semafor's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
