US data week: ISM, labor and sentiment in focus – TD Securities
Munoz and Nir expect a relatively quiet US data calendar, with ISM Services likely slipping to 54.0 versus 55.0 consensus, modestly higher Jobless Claims, and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5. They note September payrolls moderated mainly on seasonal factors, while underlying labor-market strength and rising participation support a still-resilient backdrop.
The upcoming week in the US will see a relatively calm data calendar, with key releases expected to include ISM Services, Jobless Claims, and UMich Sentiment. Analysts Munoz and Nir anticipate ISM Services to dip to 54.0, slightly above the 55.0 consensus. There will be a modest rise in Jobless Claims and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5.
September payrolls, which had fallen short of expectations last week, will likely moderate due to seasonal factors, with underlying labor market strength and increasing participation suggesting a resilient job market. The slight uptick in the Unemployment Rate to 4.2% was due to participation and the employment-to-population ratio both increasing.
Despite the ISM Services likely reversing its unexpected August gain to 54.0, the reversal is expected to be driven by strengthening new orders and activity components, while employment will remain in contraction. Prices paid will also be closely watched after rising for the past two months. Additionally, traders will focus on key events such as the ISM services revision, a potential decline in UMich Sentiment, the NY Fed's Staff Predictive Survey of Econometrics, and further remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
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