UBS adjusts Broadcom TPU model on v10 design changes

UBS analysts have revised their estimates for Broadcom's TPU product roadmap following supply chain updates that revealed modifications to Google's chip development plans. According to UBS, Google is replacing the v9 generation, referred to as Pumafish, with multiple 3nm compute dies larger than the current 3nm v8i Sunfish design.

These chips will be integrated in a multi-chip module format. UBS anticipates this design to dominate TPU volume in 2028, with production commencing in late 2027. Broadcom's management affirmed during conversations that they will participate in two generations beyond v8i, as per UBS. Initial concerns from investors regarding Broadcom's lack of 2nm wafer allocations in the supply chain have been alleviated by UBS, which now expects the company to transition to 2nm process technology for v10, scheduled to launch in late 2028 and become the primary TPU volume in 2029.

The v10 design will also incorporate 3.5D packaging technology, enabling up to 16 dies in a single package and incorporating Broadcom's 448G SerDes technology. Charlie Kawwas, President of Broadcom's Semiconductor Solutions Group, has previously discussed comparable capabilities at industry events, according to UBS. The research firm emphasized that these devices are becoming larger and more modular as companies developing cutting-edge AI models aim to integrate additional functionality within the package, such as SRAM and ARM CPU cores.

Broadcom has established a joint venture with Toppan, Advanced Substrate Technologies, to open the first FC-BGA facility in Singapore, enhancing the company's packaging capabilities. UBS projects that TSMC's CoWoS will continue to supply roughly 75% of Broadcom's packaging requirements throughout the v10 generation. While adjusting their unit expectations, UBS has maintained its revenue forecasts for Broadcom without change.