Tankers keep moving as Gulf oil exports clear pre-war mark: Kpler

Middle East crude oil shipments surpassed pre-war levels for several days in late September, according to maritime intelligence data from Kpler. Despite ongoing attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz during that period, exports hit between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and September 27-29.

The seven-day average on October 1 reached 18.5 million bpd, surpassing the pre-war average of around 18 million bpd. This marks a significant recovery from the sharp disruption caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February.

Kpler's data reveals a shift in how the region exports oil, with crude and condensate volumes totaling at least 16.5 million bpd between September 1 and September 28, equivalent to the pre-war average when Iran is excluded. This represents a 10.5 million bpd increase compared to the March monthly average, highlighting the extent of the recovery. Pre-war was defined as the period from March 2025 to February 2026.

The recovery has been achieved through alternative routes, pipelines, and offshore transfers. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have ramped up their use of pipelines and alternative terminals, while ship-to-ship transfers have become increasingly important. In fact, more than 70% of crude crossing the Strait of Hormuz changed tankers offshore in August.

However, this recovery comes with new challenges. The growing reliance on offshore transfers has created logistical constraints, with ship-to-ship activity in the Gulf of Oman reaching record levels in September. Large crude carriers are being used as shuttle vessels, making repeated trips between the Gulf and offshore transfer points. While this allows exporters to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, it also adds time, complexity, and cost to the movement of crude.

Despite the recovery in export volumes, the region's oil supply chain remains far from normal. The recent figures only represent minimum confirmed volumes, as additional shipments may be added as more evidence becomes available. The ongoing attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz pose significant security and logistical risks to the Gulf oil industry.