SpaceX stock analysis: valuation, fundamentals, and catalysts

SpaceX (SPCX) is currently trading at $168.76, a 6.16% increase from its opening price on October 5, 2026, at 1:42 PM EDT. This constitutes a 10% rise from Morgan Stanley's $159 level cited this morning. Over the past week, the shares have climbed by 16.07%, and year-to-date, they have seen a 25.07% gain. The 52-week trading range is between $104.83 and $225.64, indicating that the stock is situated around 25% below its peak.

As of October 5, 2026, the market capitalization stands at approximately $2.16 trillion. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has maintained an Overweight rating, projecting a target price of $300. The analyst's assessment suggests that the stock is undervalued, despite its current price being lower than Morgan Stanley's valuation.

This view is grounded in 2028 projections, which are the basis of Morgan Stanley's thesis. The growth denominator utilized by the analyst is also based on Morgan Stanley's forecast. Initially, projections had suggested a $137 valuation, with FY28 revenue growth expected at 70% and EBIT growth at 113%. Additionally, a $3.5 trillion revenue projection was made for 2040.

These figures represent substantial assumptions. The disparity in market sentiment is evident, as ownership appeared light, and the AI segment was valued relatively low. However, following this week's rally, part of this gap has narrowed. The foundation of the investment case rests on three key factors: the successful execution of Starship, advancements in compute pricing, and secure financing arrangements.

These factors are binary in nature and are anticipated to manifest within the next 1-2 months. This report was generated with the assistance of AI and subsequently reviewed by an editor. For additional information, please refer to the Terms and Conditions.