Separatists win Quebec provincial election but fall short of majority

Quebec's separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) secured provincial elections on October 5, 2023, marking a significant test for Canada's Prime Minister, Mark Carney. The PQ, led by 49-year-old lawyer Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, pledged to hold a referendum on independence from Canada should US President Donald Trump depart from office. However, the PQ fell short of a majority government, leaving some hope for federalists in Quebec.

The election occurs just two weeks before Alberta, Canada's largest oil-producing province, votes on whether to begin the process of leaving Canada. The PQ's victory has upended Canada's political landscape, coming amid a trade war and annexation threats from the United States. Prime Minister Carney congratulated the PQ's leader, PSPP, stating that building a stronger Quebec is essential to Canada's mission for national unity.

The election results show that only about 30% of Quebecers want independence, but PSPP maintains his commitment to a referendum on leaving Canada, pending conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate. He ruled out a referendum until at least 2029, citing concerns about an unpredictable president like Donald Trump.

The PQ's win is attributed to frustration over affordability and a desire to protect the French language in an overwhelmingly anglophone country. However, only about 30% of Quebecers wish to pursue independence. The PQ's victory leaves it struggling to advance its separatist agenda as it lacks a majority government.

The two largest opposition parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, declared they would never back a referendum on independence. Meanwhile, PSPP's plans to target the British monarchy have gained popularity among Quebecers, with 87% feeling no attachment to the British monarchy, and only 31% expressing a favorable view of King Charles III.