SA likely to increase wheat imports after harvest hits eight-year low

South Africa's winter wheat harvest for the 2026-27 season is projected to hit an eight-year low, prompting concerns about increased reliance on global wheat imports. According to the Crop Estimates Committee's second 2026-27 winter crop production estimates released on September 29, 2026, the wheat harvest is estimated at 1.81 million tons, a 5% decline from the previous year.

This is due to lower planting areas and poor yields in some Western Cape regions. Despite this, South Africa is expected to increase wheat imports to around 2.0 million tons for the 2026-27 marketing year, up from 1.9 million tons in the previous year. The country has been a net importer of wheat since the 2003-04 marketing year, with imports rising from 458,518 tons between 1989-90 and 2002-03.

The decline in domestic wheat production is attributed to farmers' inability to compete in global markets due to regulatory changes and poorer climatic conditions. Despite these challenges, global wheat supplies are generally solid, with the International Grains Council forecasting a 2026-27 global wheat production of 820 million tons, a slight drop from the previous year but still above the long-term average.