Russia is Escalating its Hybrid War against Europe, but What For?

Belgian defense minister Theo Franken forewarned in late September that Russia would increasingly launch hybrid threats against Europe in the upcoming months, describing it as a "dark winter" for the continent. European Union officials and NATO are responding by revising their defense strategies to counter these hybrid warfare tactics. Russia employs drones, aircraft, and other methods to wage its hybrid warfare against European nations.

Drones have been entering the airspace of neighboring Ukraine since the early stages of the full-scale war, with Romanian authorities finding an Orlan-10 reconnaissance UAV and reporting it to the police. Since then, Russian drones or missiles have repeatedly entered the airspace of Romania, Moldova, Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. In September 2025, 19 decoy Gerbera drones carrying no explosives flew into Poland, with some being shot down by NATO aircraft.

Russian military aircraft have also increasingly violated NATO's air borders. For instance, NATO scrambled jets to intercept Russian aircraft 3.5 times more frequently in July 2026 than in July 2025. In March 2026, a Russian Su-30 spent a minute in Estonian airspace, prompting European diplomats to warn Russia they would shoot down aircraft if the incidents continued.

Sabotage acts within Europe, including attacks on defense enterprises and infrastructure sites, have also been attributed to Russia, with incidents involving drones carrying explosives and reconnaissance drones used to create economic and psychological pressure on Europeans.

Cyberattacks are another prominent aspect of Russia's hybrid warfare against Europe, with large-scale attacks on energy infrastructure in Poland and a Norwegian dam being notable examples. GPS jamming, often used against Ukrainian drones, may also serve as a means to create unease within Western countries.