Opinion: What about that demographic dividend?
Mexico remains a young country and maintains its demographic dividend — but it is being depleted faster than we had anticipated, writes Valeria Moy. The post Opinion: What about that demographic dividend? appeared first on Mexico News Daily
For decades, the phrase "Mexico is a young country" has been repeated, indicating the nation had a favorable demographic dividend – a high proportion of working-age individuals relative to dependents. However, according to the INEGI 2025 Intercensal Survey, this demographic advantage may be fading faster than expected. Despite remaining young, Mexico now ages faster than Germany, Japan, and the United States, whose median ages stand at 39, 45.5, and 49.8 years respectively.
The population grew by 0.7% annually from 2020 to 2025, the slowest rate in nearly three decades, while Germany and Japan saw median age increases of 0.6 and 2.1 years, respectively. As of 2025, 14.7% of Mexicans are aged 60 and above – up from 12% in 2020 – while the fertility rate fell from 1.9 to 1.2 children per woman. This decline, below the replacement rate of 2.1, indicates the population will not decline immediately but the trend is alarming.
Between 2020 and 2025, 1.26 million people emigrated, primarily young men aged 20-29. The tax burden is set to rise as fewer working-age individuals contribute, and public health coverage decreases. A national care system with adequate budget, pension financing mechanisms, robust healthcare, and quality education are crucial to address the forthcoming challenges.
Written by urgent.news from Mexico News Daily's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
