Oil slips as Middle East crude exports rise, G7 to release stocks

Oil prices dipped on Monday as Middle East crude exports surged and the Group of Seven nations released oil stocks, increasing supply and alleviating concerns over further damage to Gulf oil infrastructure from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Brent crude futures declined 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 95 cents, or 1.03%, to $90.12 a barrel.

Brent prices had previously plateaued last week, while WTI was 1.6% lower after the G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves and pledged to avoid energy export restrictions, following pressure from US President Donald Trump. The release is expected to add to Middle Eastern crude exports, which rose above pre-war levels in four of seven days in the last week of September, according to shipping data, despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The G7 decision to tap strategic reserves has somewhat reduced immediate supply anxiety, and there is optimism that Saudi export volumes are nearing pre-war levels, despite higher costs and less efficient routes. Analyst Tim Waterer noted that this combination is exerting downward pressure on prices, even though risks of further damage to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region remain.

The Yemen-based Houthi group claimed responsibility for launching ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais area in response to 50 Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen within the past 12 hours. There was no official confirmation from Saudi Arabia. On Sunday, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces announced a major military operation to reclaim all territories controlled by Iran-backed Houthis.

Aramco unexpectedly reduced November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows on Sunday. Despite persistent geopolitical tensions and increased attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf, Brent prices remain above $100 per barrel, according to ING analysts. OPEC+ delayed a review of 2027 oil output quotas after the Iran war disrupted capacity expansion projects in the Middle East, casting uncertainty over future production potential.

In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that Ukraine would intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries in retaliation.