Ocean Freight Risk: Late Is Now the Likely Outcome

Ocean freight risk is escalating, with late deliveries becoming the most probable outcome on certain Asia-to-North America routes, according to WiseTech's latest Ocean Freight Risk Outlook. The report, based on September data, reveals that while transit times appear reasonable, on-time delivery performance has significantly deteriorated, with some lanes now seeing late arrivals as the norm rather than the exception.

The outlook emphasizes that carrier selection is more critical than lane choice in determining shipping reliability, as performance gaps between carriers on the same routes are substantial. Shippers should prioritize selecting carriers based on their on-time delivery track record rather than seeking the lowest rates. The executive also highlighted the importance of building routing guides that account for potential port-of-entry changes, surges in demand, and the risk of volume bunching when ocean schedules are delayed.

Utilizing multiple primary carriers and real-time rating tools to manage market rates are recommended strategies to mitigate exposure. While aggregate ocean capacity is currently sufficient to meet near-term demand, WiseTech cautions that a tariff announcement or significant weather event could quickly alter the situation, particularly in light of Hurricane Harvey as a past example of regional disruption.