NPP Chairmanship race: How APL’s survey made a near-perfect prediction
When the Electoral Commission declared John Boadu as NPP National Chairman-elect at the Baba Yara Sports Stadium on Saturday, political pollsters took notice for another reason - the accuracy of the survey conducted by policy think tank Africa Policy Lens (APL). The APL had conducted a series of polls on the election, but 24 hours before delegates converged in Kumasi, the APL released its final…
The Africa Policy Lens (APL) conducted a series of polls before the NPP National Chairman election. On the day of the Electoral Commission's declaration of John Boadu as the National Chairman-elect, the APL released its final poll projecting the outcomes. The APL's prediction was nearly perfect, with a variance of just 0.11% for Boadu's 47.3% compared to the Electoral Commission's 47.19%.
The poll also accurately projected Boakye Agyarko's 39.0% to 39.35%, Paul Afoko's 12.5% to 12.90%, and Sammy Crabbe's 0.7% to 0.67%. The APL's 0.03% variance in Crabbe's result was also notably accurate. This poll's accuracy, despite the delegates-only election being a notoriously difficult to poll, marked its significance. The NPP chairmanship race, being a highly competitive delegates election, saw lobbying, last-minute inducements, and camp strategies influencing the results.
APL also accurately predicted the races for General Secretary and Women's Organiser, with the incumbent General Secretary and Hawa Coomson securing their positions.
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