Mideast oil exports top pre-war levels for part of September, but tanker attacks increase

Mideast oil exports reached pre-war levels for around half of September, according to shipping data released on Monday. However, increased attacks on tankers and logistical challenges cast doubt on the sustainability of the heightened flows. The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for Gulf oil, saw a heightened and unpredictable threat as the number of ships passing through surged.

Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, reported that the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, with 14 days exceeding pre-war levels. This surge was driven by Saudi Arabia exporting from both the Red Sea and the Gulf, following an attack on its East-West pipeline on September 10.

Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company and some refiners chartered tankers to load Basrah crude in the strait after Baghdad obtained Iranian permission in August. Vortexa, a shipping data provider, also noted that Gulf crude and condensate exports hit an 18.6 million barrel per day average, surpassing the 10-year seasonal average and returning to pre-conflict levels.

The increase in exports is largely attributed to Saudi Arabia's efforts to regain market share from other Middle Eastern countries. Liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the strait rose to their highest since February in September. Despite this, tanker attacks persisted, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week, including the Kazimah III tanker struck on October 1 and the Lipsi tanker damaged on October 4.

Both incidents resulted in no casualties, but the attacks raise concerns about the security of the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, suggesting that the recent pattern of incidents might not be deliberate targeting but rather Iranian forces may be launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area.