Medicine shortages will result if drug prices are driven too low | Letter

Amanda Cole argues that the government must balance medicine costs with potential shortages' impact on the NHS and patients. The reported shortages at hospitals are expected to be just the beginning, warns Cole. Medicine supply chains are intricate and globally connected, with multiple failure points that are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Brexit has exacerbated this vulnerability, as the UK is now disconnected from EU medicine reserves, and cross-border logistics are more complicated than before.

The research led by Cole indicates that shortages tend to affect generic and biosimilar medicines, which are often off-patent. While low prices for these medicines are crucial for driving health system savings and promoting affordability, driving them too low can have disastrous consequences. When prices are excessively reduced, manufacturers exit the market, leaving limited suppliers and making the market extremely sensitive to any supply disruptions or sudden demand surges.

The NHS inevitably suffers when shortages occur, as they result in higher prices, expensive substitutes, and a significant burden for staff to manage emergency procurement. In extreme cases, rationing becomes necessary. Patients ultimately bear the brunt of these shortages, facing delayed treatment and poorer health outcomes. Cole stresses that decisive government action is necessary to prevent the reported medicine shortages in hospitals from becoming just the tip of the iceberg.