'Lula' y Flávio Bolsonaro se disputarán la presidencia de Brasil en segunda vuelta

The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his eldest son Flávio Bolsonaro will compete for the presidency in a second round of voting on October 25, according to the official election results, with 99.99% of the vote tally scrutinized. The son of the ultra-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, with 47.03% of the votes, and the progressive leader, with 45.16%, were the two highest-voted in a first round without options from the other ten aspirants for the head of State, according to data from the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE).

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, was ahead of Lula from the start of the vote count, but his results deteriorated compared to the first round in 2022, when he reached 48.4% and 57.2 million votes. The elder son of Jair Bolsonaro added more than 56 million signatures with his name on Sunday, 2.3 million more than Lula and around five million more than his father in the first round of 2022.

He even won the first round, but lost ground as the votes from the northeast region of the country, bastion of Brazil's left-wing, began to arrive. Before the results were known, Lula's campaign sources had commented that the former mechanic needed at least a four-point advantage to go to the second round with some peace of mind, which has not happened.

Behind was the psychiatrist and writer Augusto Cury (2.89%), the ultra agitator Renan Santos (2.24%), the ex-conservative governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (2.18%) and the ex-liberal governor of Minas Gerais Romeu Zema (0.27%). The abstention reached 21% of the electorate in a country where voting is mandatory. Opinion polls had already shown a rising trend in Flávio's favor in recent weeks, backed by his father's Liberal Party (PL), who is currently in prison custody after being convicted of coup plotting.

However, neither Quaest nor Datafolha, the two most relevant polling companies in the country, projected a clear victory for the senator. For the second round, the polls published before this Sunday projected a very tense contest, with Lula and Flávio in a technical tie. Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive term at the age of 80.

The historic leader of the Workers' Party (PT) has based his campaign on his current administration's legacy, with economic growth of over 2%, unemployment at lows and a significant increase in the wage bill. In the final days of campaigning, he announced austerity measures, such as a 15% increase in the main government welfare program and a ban on sports betting and online casinos.

However, the feeling remains that the cost of living continues to be high, amidst record household debt levels. Flávio was chosen as his father's candidate by thumb, as he is currently in prison custody after being sentenced to 27 years in jail for leading a coup plot after losing the 2022 elections to Lula, according to the Supreme Court.

The PL candidate has promised tough measures against organized crime and a scissor cut in public spending and taxes. The Brazilian electoral campaign has been marked by corruption scandals that have touched several Supreme Court judges as well as Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula's entourage, and attempts at interference by the United States, according to the PT.