Lawyer warns against saying 2027 poll outcome already decided

Kola Alapinni, a human rights lawyer and U.S. Secretary of State awardee for International Religious Freedom, cautioned against interpreting insecurity, vote-buying, and alleged influence on election logistics as proof that the 2027 Nigerian presidential election has already been determined. In a statement titled "A Forecast Is Not a Verdict: Why The Economist Misreads 2027," Alapinni challenged The Economist's assessment of factors that could influence the election.

The Economist highlighted incumbency, opposition fragmentation, religion, voter turnout, and political cynicism as potential factors favoring President Bola Tinubu. However, Alapinni argued that these current political conditions should not be automatically projected onto the 2027 election. The lawyer disputed the notion that opposition fragmentation would automatically benefit the incumbent, stating that the political situation remains fluid.

Alapinni also questioned The Economist's assumption that religious identity would necessarily determine voting patterns in the North and Middle Belt, citing polling data showing Tinubu trailing Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in Borno, where low expectations are not consent. He further warned against assuming that political cynicism would lead to voter apathy, emphasizing that Nigerians affected by insecurity, economic hardship, and poor public services could view the election as an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction.

Alapinni acknowledged the advantages of incumbency, such as political machinery, financial resources, and voter mobilization, but cautioned against conflating these factors with public consent. He also cautioned against assuming that insecurity and vote-buying would determine the election outcome, maintaining that the eventual result would depend on whether Nigerians can participate in the election and exercise their franchise.