Is Ethiopia repeating its oldest mistake?
Is Ethiopia repeating its oldest mistake? Submitted by Yunus Turhan on Thu, 10/01/2026 - 16:33 When past leaders have tried to govern from a single centre, the country's peripheries have united in opposition Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on 25 September 2025 (Evgenia Novozhenina/AFP) On Ethiopia’s history has come back to haunt it. Late last month, seven…
Ethiopia is on the precipice of repeating its historic pattern of political instability, as its regions unite against centralised rule led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The current conflict echoes past struggles for autonomy and control, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leading the charge against Abiy's government. This time, however, the rebels include forces that Abiy defeated in the recent war, highlighting the fragility of his political coalition.
Historically, Ethiopia has oscillated between a strong central government and regional autonomy. In the 18th and 19th centuries, regional lords ruled independently; Tewodros II's centralisation led to a revolt and his death at Magdala. Haile Selassie's dissolution of Eritrea in 1962 sparked a 30-year war, and the Derg regime's centralisation culminated in its overthrow by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) in 1991.
The EPRDF's centralised approach, based on party discipline from Addis Ababa, has failed to resolve regional tensions, as seen in the 2022 Pretoria agreement and its subsequent breakdown.
Abiy's policies, such as dissolving the EPRDF and enforcing strict media controls, have entrenched ethnic divisions and led to renewed conflict. The current alliance of rebel groups, primarily former allies from the TPLF, Tigray, and Amhara, stems from their shared grievances with centralisation. Abiy's approach of mass arrests and media restrictions has only further inflamed tensions, making a peaceful resolution increasingly unlikely.
Three potential outcomes loom on the horizon. First, Abiy might concede to Amhara's demands over the contested region of Welkait, while portraying the TPLF's military actions as aggressive. This would isolate Tigray but solidify Abiy's control, but at the cost of further alienating Tigray. Second, a stalemate could emerge, with the central government controlling cities and air space, while rebels hold territory, pushing Ethiopia towards a new era of fragmented governance reminiscent of the Zemene Mesafint.
The third, and most perilous, scenario involves Abiy seeking external conflict to unify his supporters, potentially escalating into a broader regional war involving Eritrea and other powers, such as the UAE. This path could turn Ethiopia's internal strife into a broader conflict with far-reaching implications.
Written by urgent.news from Middle East Eye's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
