Indian rupee ends flat, anchored by RBI intervention in face of global strains

Mumbai: On Monday, the Indian rupee remained flat, hovering between the pressures of a stronger dollar, higher oil prices, and potential intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The currency closed at 96.2925 per dollar, only slightly different from its previous close of 96.3150. The dollar opened the week strong, nearing a 17-month high on Monday, lifted by a weakening euro due to concerns over France's fiscal situation and causing Asian currencies to drop 0.1% to 0.5%.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose close to $103 per barrel, keeping India's energy-dependent economy on edge due to Middle Eastern export concerns amid ongoing war-related disruptions. The rupee's reliance on central bank interventions to prevent testing record low levels, last seen in May, was evident as importers booked $576.6 billion in forward hedges, surpassing exporters' $305.6 billion.

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman noted on Monday that talks with the United States have reached a standstill, and further concessions seem unlikely. The focus now shifts to the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, where expectations are high for a 25 basis point increase in benchmark rates. Deepali Bhargava, ING's regional head of research for Asia-Pacific, said, "While the inflation shock is largely supply-driven, we expect the RBI to raise rates to prevent inflation expectations from de-anchoring." "Markets will be focused on the RBI's guidance on the extent and duration of the tightening cycle."