Gold: Recovery hinges on lower yields – OCBC
OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Gold’s brief post-payrolls rebound faded as long-end US yields stayed elevated and the Dollar remained firm. The bank argues that reduced Fed hike risk alone is insufficient for a sustained rally; a clearer, lasting decline in long-end and real yields, alongside some easing in Oil-driven inflation concerns, is needed for a firmer Gold recovery.
Christopher Wong of OCBC explains that gold's brief post-payrolls recovery has stalled due to sustained high US long-term yields and a strong dollar. He asserts that reducing expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes is not enough for gold to make a significant rebound; a real and sustained decline in long-term yields and easing concerns over oil-driven inflation are also crucial.
The bank nonetheless remains cautious, noting the possible short-term downside risk. Gold is trading below key moving average levels, with support at 4110, 4030, and 3944. To reverse the current downtrend, gold would need to break above the 4280-4330 range, which represents multiple moving average levels. The USD/JPY pair breaks above 158.00, while AUD/USD declines towards 0.6900 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
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