EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests ascending channel lower boundary near 176.50

EUR/JPY is experiencing a seventh consecutive day of losses, trading near 176.70 during Asian hours on Monday. Technical analysis indicates the currency pair is testing the lower boundary of its descending channel, with potential for either a temporary bounce or further decline. The 14-day RSI stands at 27.00, suggesting oversold conditions that may mitigate the decline but not challenge the negative bias.

The EUR/JPY is currently below both the nine- and 50-day EMAs, signaling dominant downside pressure. A break below the lower boundary around 176.50, coupled with a low of 175.70, could mark a 11-month low reached in November 2025. Further support exists at the 14-month low of 169.72. On the upside, EUR/JPY may rally towards the nine-day EMA at 178.27 and the 50-day EMA at 181.34.

Resistance lies at the upper channel boundary at 184.40, followed by the all-time high of 187.95. BoJ's Uchida speech received a neutral rating on the FXS Speechtracker, indicating a stable tone rather than policy urgency. The emphasis on AI as a positive demand shock, driving economic activity, prices, and long-term rates, slightly tilts the outlook hawkish for the Yen.

However, caution about profit correction risks tempers this hawkish bias, with a focus on closely monitoring AI-driven indicators. Overall, the EUR/JPY remains in a bearish near-term stance, with potential support at lower levels.