Crime in Covid Times
What caused the historically unique volatility in American homicides since 2019, driven by gun homicides? While there is no shortage of candidate explanations, a coherent understanding has been elusive because of the widely held view that gun violence, like other crimes, stems from a rational weighing of benefits and costs as in Becker (1968). This […] The post Crime in Covid Times appeared first…
The recent volatility in American homicides, particularly gun-related deaths, since 2019 has been a puzzling phenomenon. Traditional economic models struggle to provide a comprehensive explanation for these trends. However, behavioral economics offers valuable insights into this complex issue.
Most shooting incidents are not driven by a larger goal, like robbery or territorial disputes. Instead, they represent arguments settled with firearms, often referred to as "expressive violence." The behavioral model emphasizes that most shootings are driven by automatic cognition, which is fast and effortless but occasionally prone to error.
The pandemic exacerbated this automatic cognition by increasing distress, creating a "cognitive bandwidth tax." This heightened state of automaticity is linked to the recent trends in homicides, which are primarily driven by changes in expressive violence. These trends are also observed in deaths from drug overdoses, car crashes, and suicide, particularly among Black Americans, who are disproportionately affected by violence.
Another factor to consider is the significant rise and fall in gun carrying, which may be influenced by traditional economic mechanisms. Large fluctuations in handgun sales and police stops could be attributed to the killing of George Floyd. As American gun violence is predominantly characterized by arguments with firearms, the trends in homicide can largely be explained by changes in the number of such arguments and the likelihood of a gun being present during a particular altercation.
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