Can Baghdad gain control over paramilitary groups amid US war on Iran?

The Iraqi government is striving to take control of paramilitary groups amid the US war on Iran. The state aims to bring these armed groups under its control, despite competing interests and external pressures. The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a prominent paramilitary group, continued its role during a symbolic funeral procession as the US-led coalition withdrew from Iraq on 1 October 2026.

The process of state control will involve phases, beginning with a 90-day cessation of military activity, which commenced on 30 September. Following this period, paramilitary groups will start transferring their weapons to the state control, with the deadline set for 30 June 2027. This process is not a traditional disarmament, but rather a containment and control of weapons by the state. The US military has repeatedly attacked Iran-linked paramilitary bases, including the PMF, during the war on Iran.

The US has also refrained from launching military strikes on armed groups in Iraq during the period of state control. Saudi Arabia and the US launched a joint attack on PMF targets in July 2026, killing at least 20 members. The process aims to limit paramilitary groups' ability to act autonomously, preventing them from launching unilateral military actions beyond Iraq's borders, which could risk drawing Iraq into regional escalation.

Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi aims to integrate fighters from some paramilitaries into the state's ranks. However, many groups, including Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataeb Imam Ali, have placed their arms under state control but may continue to do so if their economic influence and parliamentary seats are preserved. More hardline factions like Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba and Kataeb Hezbollah, participating in recent attacks on US interests, have refused to disarm. These groups have cited the US presence in Iraq as a reason for retaining their weapons.