Brazil election: Bolsonaro and Lula head to runoff

Polls in Brazil have closed for the first round of the presidential election, with left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro trailing closely behind. Lula, 80, cautioned that voters were facing a choice between democracy and "barbarism," while Bolsonaro, 45, claimed he sought to liberate the Brazilian people.

With just over 90% of votes counted, Bolsonaro leads with 48.05%, whereas Lula trails at 43.97%. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election is scheduled for October 25th. According to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court, more than 158.7 million eligible voters participated, including one million abroad. The TSE has not set a fixed time for official results but anticipates them within hours due to electronic voting.

A Bolsonaro victory would continue a trend of right-wing wins in Latin America aligned with US President Donald Trump. Conversely, Lula's re-election could complicate matters for Washington, which has had conflicts with his administration over trade and security. Preliminary vote count data from countries like China, South Korea, New Zealand, and Saudi Arabia show Lula winning with percentages ranging from 56.63% to 78.63%.

However, in Israel and Japan, Bolsonaro emerged victorious with 74.40% and 71.59% of valid votes respectively. The election outcome will also impact the Senate composition from February 2027, as 54 of the 81 seats are up for grabs. Currently, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party leads the Senate, followed by the Social Democratic Party, which formed a coalition government under Lula.

Jair Bolsonaro, Lula's father and Bolsonaro's challenger, is currently barred from running due to a 27-year sentence for coup plotter accusations stemming from last year's contentious election. Despite serving his sentence under house arrest, Jair Bolsonaro remains a significant influence in Brazilian politics.