2027: El-Rufai’s detention could hurt APC, generate sympathy – SEDSAC director, other analysts express views

The ongoing detention of former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has prompted a range of opinions on its potential impact on the All Progressives Congress (APC) ahead of the 2027 elections. While some analysts predict the detention could weaken the opposition by removing a key strategist, others believe it might generate sympathy for El-Rufai and provide a mobilization opportunity for the opposition.

El-Rufai has been held since February 2026 in connection with corruption allegations, though he has pleaded not guilty. His detention has drawn criticism, with some questioning whether it's driven by actual corruption or political motives. Political scientist Dr. Kabiru Said Sufi suggests the public's perception of the case will largely determine its political consequences.

He notes that while public anger has waned, the opposition hasn't sustained the issue as a campaign topic. According to Sufi, the APC might gain organizationally from El-Rufai's absence, but the situation could backfire if public outrage resurges. Political commentator Comrade Aminu Rabiu Kano highlights El-Rufai's significance as a former governor and influential northern politician, suggesting the detention could limit his physical participation in politics but not necessarily his influence.

He warns that prolonged detention could create a different political narrative. Comrade Umar Muhammad Kofar Naisa, Country Director of SEDSAC, argues the continued detention could hurt the APC by generating sympathy for El-Rufai, who enjoys widespread support as a former governor. Kano stresses that Northern voters are not a monolithic bloc, with their electoral decisions influenced by various factors.

Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, has questioned the consistency of Nigeria's anti-corruption campaign, citing El-Rufai's continued detention as an example. The divergent views indicate that the political impact of El-Rufai's detention will hinge not only on the legal proceedings' duration but also on how voters interpret the case and how the APC and opposition parties leverage it during the 2027 election campaign.