Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion

Canada is bracing for an unlikely prospect: a potential invasion by the United States. Prime Minister Mark Carney admitted last week that he had factored in this once-improbable scenario, stressing the importance of considering all possibilities as the US-Canada relationship evolves under the Trump administration. Trump's global tariffs and his expressed desire to incorporate Canada into the US have prompted Canada to conduct war games imagining an American attack.

Military experts concur that an invasion is highly unlikely, citing the deep collaboration between the two countries in defense. They work together as members of the North Atlantic Defense Alliance, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), and frequently share intelligence. Nevertheless, Canada's military officials acknowledge that a US invasion would pose significant challenges.

Lt-Gen Christopher Coates, a retired Royal Canadian Air Force officer, explained that the US and Canada have shared defense responsibilities for decades, and an attack would likely start with covert operations rather than a conventional military assault.

Historical context reveals that Canada and the US have long been uneasy allies, wary of US expansionism dating back to the 18th and 19th centuries. The two nations have since become deeply integrated economically, militarily, and culturally. In the past, Canada relied on British military assistance and indigenous allies to defend against US threats. In the War of 1812, American forces invaded Canadian territories multiple times, but the conflict ended in a stalemate.

A US invasion could unfold in several phases, according to the Canadian military's modeling. The initial phase would see Canadian strategic positions overwhelmed within a week due to the superior US military numbers. Canadian forces would then resort to guerrilla tactics to resist the enemy. Allowing Canada's potential ally, France, and Britain, to provide support and defense might be crucial. The modeling is based on the first century of planning for any US assault on Canada.

While the likelihood of a US invasion remains minimal, Matthew Schmidt, a national security professor, highlights the significance of Canada's preparedness. It reflects the dramatic shift in the global order and the need for Canada to reassess its relationship with the United States. If such an invasion were to occur, it would be a watershed moment in Canada's defense history, challenging the nation to adapt its strategies and collaborate with allied nations to counter the threat.