Russia could partially open diesel exports in case of surplus output: Novak

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has stated that Russia could potentially open up diesel exports if the country experiences a production surplus in the future, according to local media reports on Oct. 2. Russia, traditionally the world's second-largest exporter of diesel, halted its production in July due to persistent drone attacks from Ukraine on its refining sector.

The ban on diesel exports will remain in place until the end of January for non-producers, including traders and refineries with capacities under 1 million metric tons/year.

Novak emphasized the importance of not accumulating excess stocks, as this could force refineries to reduce throughput and impact the production of other products. Russia currently produces more diesel than it consumes, but President Vladimir Putin warned that the fuel wouldn't reach global markets due to foreign sanctions. In the latest forum, Putin mentioned that almost 50% of Russia's primary refining capacity was offline as of the end of August due to targeted Ukrainian drone strikes. Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA estimated the same figure.

Putin estimated that Ukrainian strikes had impacted around 1% of Russia's GDP. Novak mentioned that once the fuel market becomes balanced, Russia will resume consuming its own gasoline and exporting it to other countries. Russia currently produces 10%-15% more gasoline than it consumes, and the imports have been a temporary measure.

The Kremlin extended the gasoline export ban through the end of January 2027, leading to Russia relying on foreign suppliers and raising global concerns over tight fuel supply. Novak also clarified that Russia will not cease attacks on Ukrainian ships and sensitive sites in exchange for halting Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.