Pro-Ukraine governing coalition wins 35% in Latvian election

In Latvia's recent parliamentary election, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List secured a substantial victory, positioning him well to continue as leader. Based on the final vote count, the center-right United List garnered approximately 35% of the vote, a significant 20 percentage points higher than the far-right Latvia First party, which advocates against restrictive tariffs on Russia.

Following the election, Kulbergs' party is projected to secure 42 out of the 100 parliamentary seats. Despite the clear win, Kulbergs will still need to collaborate with other parties to form a governing majority. Two members of his previous coalition, the conservative National Alliance and center-right New Unity, surpassed the 5% threshold and are expected to participate in the next parliament.

Their combined influence should be sufficient to form a majority government without incorporating the Union of Greens and Farmers, which did not clear the threshold. This outcome allows Kulbergs to maintain a pro-Ukraine coalition, avoiding the potential need to partner with Latvia First, a relationship that had been a topic of discussion throughout the campaign season.

The election period also saw tensions rise with issues such as high inflation, the struggling national airline airBaltic, and Russia and Belarus's support for migration efforts. Kulbergs took office in late May, succeeding Evika Siliņa, who resigned amid criticism over Ukrainian drone strikes that fell within Latvia's borders. Prior to the election, Kulbergs had publicly opposed an EU agreement to remove Russian billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from the sanctions list, but Latvia ultimately abstained, contributing to the broader sanctions regime being maintained.