Persian Gulf oil flows return to prewar levels, but Iran could resort to a ‘scorched earth campaign’ as U.S. deploys more ships and Marines to Mideast

The flow of Persian Gulf oil has returned to prewar levels, but Iran may resort to a "scorched earth campaign" as the U.S. deploys more ships and Marines to the Middle East. According to recent data, Middle East crude exports reached approximately 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of prewar levels. Goldman Sachs predicts the number has even reached 19 million barrels per day.

Kpler's September figure stands at 16.5 million barrels. The recovery has transformed regional oil logistics, with around 40% of crude no longer crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war. Analysts warn Iran could re-escalate the conflict and reassert its control over the oil trade due to its existential threat. Despite the U.S. naval blockade, Iranian exports remain at zero.

While crude prices are high, refined fuels like diesel have suffered further. However, the rebound in Gulf oil flows has occurred through a fundamentally different export system. Iran can still destroy oil infrastructure and escalate the war if the U.S. administration doesn't show enough pain. U.S. President Donald Trump has rejected Tehran's offer to restart talks and expects to start bombing Iran after the midterm elections.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier and the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group are deployed to the Middle East. Iran's attacks on U.S. bases, Gulf cities, and infrastructure highlight the U.S. failure to mitigate the threat.