Opec+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady

Opec+ maintained oil output targets for November without any changes, according to a meeting held on Sunday (October 4). The core members comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman reached this decision during an online session. These seven nations have been producing oil significantly below their production targets due to disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating between 60 to 80 percent of normal levels in recent months.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo confirmed that despite increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, production levels remain well below quota, leading to a tight oil market. Although oil prices dropped on Friday following European leaders' decision to release diesel reserves, Brent crude still remains above US$100 per barrel, having increased from about US$73 before the Iran war began in late February.

The output capacity review, a crucial step in determining members' 2027 output quotas, has been delayed due to the conflict, causing uncertainty in future production potential estimates. Opec+ had raised output targets for much of 2026, but most of the increases remained on paper due to the Middle East conflict. In August, the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 630,000 bpd more than July but still around five million bpd below pre-war levels in February, as per Opec data.

Currently, Opec+ still has approximately two million bpd of output cuts in place for most members. A separate Opec+ ministerial group, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met on Sunday to review the market situation.