OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep November oil output targets steady, sources say

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to maintain its oil production targets for November, according to three sources familiar with the discussions ahead of the group’s meeting on Sunday. Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping output levels significantly below targets due to ongoing disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran, with exports fluctuating between 60-80% of normal capacity.

The conflict has also delayed the group’s capacity review, which is essential for determining members’ 2027 output quotas. This uncertainty regarding future production potential has prevented the group from implementing the much-needed increases in production targets. The core OPEC+ members, comprising seven countries, produced 25 million barrels per day in August, marking a 630,000 bpd increase from July but still falling short of prewar levels in February by approximately 5 million bpd.

Currently, OPEC+ retains about 2 million bpd of output cuts, which are distributed across most members. Decisions to adjust output are expected to be made after a capacity review in 2027, with the next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday at 1100 GMT, featuring the seven core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

Additionally, a separate OPEC+ ministerial group, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), will convene on the same day to review market conditions.